We expect a two-cornered political battle in the first election of Parliament members of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) next year, assuming that the regional poll will push through as scheduled.

---

My assumption is based on the fact that CSOs – now greater in number – have already started strides for a second wave of extension in the lifespan of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority from 2025 to 2028 – the first being 2022-2025 reprieve the state had approved. The CSOs contend that many provisions of R.A. 11054 (BARMM Charter) and the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) are far from full realization – notably in the normalization track that mandates the transformation of MILF members to peaceful and productive life.

Meantime, two major political groups have started gearing for the 2025 regional elections. Four political blocs – the Al Ittihad-UKB, the Serbisyong Inklusibo Alyansang Progresibo (SIAP), the Salam Party, and the Bangsamoro People’s Party (BPP) have formed the Bangsamoro Grand Coalition (BGC) to slug it out with the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and allies in the current BARMM governance.

 The incumbent six (6) provincial governors in BARMM are equally split in the two contending parties. Lanao del Sur Gov. Bombit AlontoAdiong Jr. alongside his son, Vice Gov. Mujam and their SIAP party; Maguindanao del Sur Gov. Mariam Sangki-Mangudadatu and husband, former Sultan Kudarat Gov. and now TESDA director general, with their Al-Ittihad; and Sulu Gov. Sakur Tan and his Salam Party belong to the BGC. Also backing the BGC is Basilan Rep. Mujiv Hataman, a former regional governor, and his Bangsamoro People’s Party.

The UBJP headed by MILF Chairman and interim Chief Minister Ahod “Hadji Murad” Ebrahim, on the other hand, is enjoying the unwavering backing of Governors Jim Hataman-Salliman of Basilan and Yshmael “Mang” Sali of Tawi-Tawi alongside their full incumbent provincial and municipal slates.

The BGC has announced having endorsed Gov. Tan as aspirant for chief minister, a position to be chosen by the 80 members of parliament to be elected by party system and district polls. But Governors Macacua, Salliman and Sali would want CM Ebrahim to remain as regional chief executive.

Two other regional parties are joining the regional race: The Bangsamoro Party (BaPa) of former Cotabato City Mayor and current MNLF faction Chairman Muslimin Sema; and the Indigenous Political Party formed by IP groups in BARMM wanting direct representation to key positions in BARMM. But both parties are reportedly not aspiring for the CM post.

The BGC in its recent post claimed that MNLF founding Chairman Nur Misuari was supporting the coalition, citing the former U.P. professor’s daughter - MP Nurrredha Ibrahim Misuari – as claiming. But MNLF Secretary General Ustadz Murshi Ibrahim said in a message to the Philippine Muslim Today news that the MNLF “national leadership” has not decided yet on its official stance in the BARMM polls.

Lingering questions

The BGC-announced endorsement of Gov. Tan as an aspirant for CM post was a shift from a long-standing stance of Ex-Gov. Teng Mangudadatu, who had repeatedly expressed a desire to vie for the top BARMM post.

The announcement has also brought to the fore lingering questions: Is Gov. Tan, who is still eligible for reelection in his Sulu post going to file his candidacy for a parliament post, which is a ladder to the CM slot? Is Tan going to run in the district race or via the party system? Is his stance not a ploy for a possible substitution later by Mangudadatu to shield the latter from being an object of cursing and flaks by stakeholders of meaningful autonomy for BARMM?

There are also questions on whether the usual muscle flexing by Palace officials during regional elections will happen for the BARMM polls. Will Congress and/or the Palace go for another extension in the BARMM interim lifespan?

Top issue at stake

 In the likely conduct of the first BARMM election on schedule next year, the top issue that the regional electorate will have to decide on is the question of giving way to a political reform desired by the revolutionary groups – MILF and MNLF – for a relief from an age-old monopoly of politics by moneyed clans in the region. (To be continued.)